The climate conditions forecast is based on the 200-year solar activity cycle.
Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space solar research sector of St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Observatory, has made a rather unexpected climate forecast for the coming years. He believes no global warming is to be expected in the near future.
The recent studies of the Sun have demonstrated that apart from the well-known 11-year cycle there also exists a two-century cycle of solar activity, which has been decreasing since the 1990-s.
Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space solar research sector of the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explains: ‘The climate depends on the energy balance between the Earth and the space. If the Earth gets as much energy as it emits, the climate does not change. If the Earth gets more energy, as was the case in the 20th century, it leads to warming. And, just the reverse, which is happening now, the Sun emits less energy, and this will lead to cooling’.
When the cooling can start, depends on the so-called thermal inertia of the planet, which makes 30 years plus/minus 11 years. Besides, the cooling will be gradual, by fractions of a degree per year. So, it will become noticeable by the 2070-s.
It is expected that the Sun will start emitting less heat around 2043. However, this forecast is also subject to the plus/minus 11-year inaccuracy.
Photo: St. Petersburg TV channel